I was looking forward to continuing my exposition on Joseph Schumpeter and his minimalist conception of participatory democracy this week. Alas, for a number of reasons, I will defer this discussion to next time. As a byproduct of having to do a lot of thinking about democracy and its fragility for my Humanities Capstone project, I have become a little jaded (the prospects for democracy are dim in a world full of fascist lies and doublespeak, as it turns out) and won’t be able to faithfully represent the Schumpeterian theory. I wouldn’t want to make a half-hearted effort and risk all my fans (joke) developing a hazy understanding of Schumpeter’s transformative ideas.
Instead, since the fantasy football season drew to a close about a week ago, I have a lot of residual thoughts and observations that I haven’t had the chance to share. Many moons ago I predicted that after I lost Javonte Williams and Breece Hall to ACL tears, my favorite fantasy team would make a playoff run and get bounced in the semifinals. I guess I hexed myself because this is exactly what happened. I was, sadly, not able to defend my championship in the league that mattered most. Accordingly, in this installment of Philosophantasy, we will be reflecting on some of the predictions I made entering the 2022 season, as well as making some fresh ones for the 2023 season.
Preseason: Michael Pittman Jr. will finish as a WR1.
I think part of this MPJ prediction was influenced by the underlying belief that QB Matt Ryan was a significant improvement from QB Carson Wentz, Pittman’s main signal caller last year. I don’t think it is that presumptuous of a prediction to make: after all, Ryan is a former MVP and over the course of his career, has achieved more than Wentz. Unfortunately, I can’t really say with confidence that Ryan was a major upgrade for Indy this year. Pittman earned 136 targets in his 15 games played, but many of those balls also came from Sam Ehlinger (who) and Nick Foles (washed). Targets are determinative of wide receiver fantasy output, but those targets have to be quality to matter.
The polarity of Pittman’s performances this season demonstrates what I’m talking about here. He drew over 13 targets in multiple games this year, but, stunningly, also earned 5 targets or under an equal number of times. I give this prediction a 5/10. Pittman finished as the WR20 in PPR scoring but was outside the top 24 wide receivers in points per game. Sad! I still have tons of belief in Pittman’s talent and skillset though. Should the Colts make an upgrade at quarterback, I will make this same exact prediction next year, with renewed confidence that this time, it shall cash.
Preseason: Chris Olave will be the WR1 in New Orleans.
My statistical projection for wide receiver output is highly dependent on two factors: air yardage and yards after the catch (YAC). To put it plainly, I project breakout wide receivers based first on the yardage they could have gained, coming from both complete and incomplete attempts. Then, based off of what they are doing with the ball after it’s caught — whether they can amass a lot of yards running. Guys like Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp always stand out to me because they can excel in both respects.
Accordingly, Chris Olave, to me, has always represented the deep ball. Coming out of Ohio State, we knew that Olave had an excellent big-play ability. That is, he has the speed and verticality to penetrate defenses on deep shots, allowing for huge yardage gains. Saints WR Michael Thomas, who has finished as the overall WR1 before, stood out to me in lots of bad ways entering this season. He was rehabbing an ankle injury that kept him from touching an NFL field for two full seasons. This kind of injury prevents a player from being as agile and cutting as sharply, impacting the effectiveness of their routes. In any case, I was super high on Olave because I was super low on Thomas. Even if MT played to his pre-injury level, defenses could key in on him, making Olave’s strengths as a big playmaker infinitely more valuable. The Saints QB at the start of the season, Jameis Winston, is a gunslinger. He loves unleashing deep balls, so who better to reap the benefits than Olave?
When it was all said and done, Olave finished top-6 in air yards at the wideout position, confirming my initial reasoning. Not only was he the WR1 on his team, but midway through the season, Olave had an outside shot at being a WR1 overall. Before a hamstring injury limited him in the final weeks of the regular season, Olave was on pace for over 140 receptions and nearly 1300 yards. Wicked numbers for a rookie. 
I give this prediction a 10/10 and more.
If I were a gambling man, I’d bet that Michael Thomas is not a New Orleans Saint by the time the 2023 NFL season rolls around. As such, I’m heavily targeting Chris Olave for the next few years: I think he will be the most prolific member of his draft class at his position.
Preseason: Mike Williams overtakes Keenan Allen in Los Angeles.
This prediction really burned me because I took Mike Williams in 4 out of 5 leagues. Veteran fantasy managers all kinda know who Mike Dubs is as a player and a fantasy asset. He thrives off big plays and is the textbook definition of inconsistent. He will single-handedly win you weeks with huge, multi-TD performances, and also drop a seemingly equal number of single-digit duds. But, Williams got paid this offseason, earning a contract extension of $60 million. To me, this presaged a more outsized role in the Chargers offense: maybe he becomes Herbert’s #1 passing option, I surmised.
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missed 6 games apiece. And when they did play, Allen outdid Williams on a per-game basis. I rate this prediction indeterminate. I just don’t think the sample size is large enough to draw any conclusions about what this Chargers offense will really look like with all its weapons available. One thing seems certain: HC Staley should be fired, and whether it’s the great Sean Payton, the disgraced Nathaniel Hackett, or the underappreciated Mike LaFleur that goes on to replace him, the LAC offense will more than likely end up way different at the outset of next season.
I am still more than happy to draft Chargers. Williams, Allen, and even Herbert, to me, remain quality resources for any fantasy team.
Alright, this is getting really long. Here are three “hot takes” for the future.
1) Bengals and Eagles meet in the Super Bowl. I like the Eagles here.
2) The first round of 2023 PPR drafts: McCaffrey, Jefferson, Ekeler, Chase, Barkley, Adams, Diggs, Hill, Taylor, Kelce, Kupp, Jacobs. Not necessarily in that order.
3) There is a Khalil Herbert RB1 season incoming. Be ready.
Hope everyone won their fantasy championships and has a fun time rooting against the Dallas Cowboys this week. Philosophantasy will return in two weeks’ time with the second part of my Schumpeter series, exploring his concept of competitive elitism and its many epistocratic possibilities.
Zach, I love reading your blogs about fantasy football because you are incredibly knowledgeable about the topic. My condolences for your semifinal loss. You’ll bounce back next year I’m sure. Your prediction about Olave going into the season was absolutely spot-on. He is definitely someone that I want to target going into drafts next season, along with his fellow rookie and former teammate Garrett Wilson. Those Ohio State guys are just incredible. I think that if either of them gets an upgrade at quarterback next season, their stats could take off to the moon. Another player who I think has immense value going into next season is Travis Kelce. Obviously he is getting older, but a lot of people wrote him off this season and he still proved to be unquestionably the best tight end in fantasy. In my opinion, he warrants an early first-round selection next year depending on the league format, just because the positional advantage he provides is so huge. I mean, he practically puts up the numbers of an elite wide receiver. Also, the Cowboys are horrible. That last play against the 49ers with Zeke snapping the ball was the most comical thing I’ve ever seen.
Alrighty Zach,
I swear to Allah I read every single word of your blog, however, I did not understand a bit of it. I feel like I am reading an E.E. Cummings poem and trying to decipher the true meaning of the text.
Although I did not fully comprehend the references to the players, I did add a few terms to my dictionary. First off, you often referenced “targets” in your blog. After a little research, I think it means the number of opportunities that a pass-catcher earns. Additionally, I learned that a pass-catcher is a player who catches forward passes. Thankfully, I knew what a forward pass was.
I also enjoyed your snappy captions on your pictures. Especially when you refer to the players by their first name like you are familiars.
Honestly, I am glad you have a pass time that truly interests you. I see your BeReal posts just looking at a computer screen full of statistical football charts almost everyday. Maybe one day I will understand your formula for the statistical projection for wide receiver output or how a gunslinger relates to football, but for now I am quite content watching you scroll through ESPN Fantasy Sports & More on the sidelines.